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Hey, your "Probability of taking damage" is kinda flawed. A unit will always attack the one infront of it, unless there is an open slot infront of it at the start of turn or when it is played, which then the pathing cards appear to redirect the attack. It is not possible for a unit that is currently being blocked to have a 25% chance to attack to the side. - Sanhard

Hello. I apologize. My friend told me this information. Tomorrow I will try to remake in view of the above. In any case, this is quite good, as it simplifies the conditional probability of counting the correct position of a unit when deploying - Naraz dva
See Pathing, I think the image will help. - Sanhard
So, if a preexisting unit has a unit ahead of itself only on one side, then the probability of switching will be equal to 50 percent and not 25? - Naraz dva
It's always 25%. So if there is only one neighbor, 50% forward, 25% left and 25% right. If it choose the side without a unit, it just goes forward - Sanhard
So, the probability in that case: is 50/50 (not 75/25)? What then does this phrase mean "A unit has a 50% to attack directly infront them (which usually means that they will attack the tower), and a 50% chance to attack diagonally." if we have only 3 pathing card variations. Does this mean that "forward" pathing cards drop on average 2 out of 4 cases (and in this case we have a 75/25 probability in the above example)? - Naraz dva
It is effectively 75/25, where there is one card say, to the left. Forward Pathing Cards drop 50% of the time, Left Pathing Cards drop 25% of the time, and Right Pathing Cards drop 25% of the time. If there is no unit to the right and you get a Right Pathing Card, it will default to Forward. If there is no unit to the left and you get a Left Pathing Card, it will default to Forward. So in the case you linked, the first and second image is correct, the third is not. If there is only one unit to the diagonal it is effectively 75/25 - Sanhard